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Issue 58 - 03 | Ending the Illusion of Control: Let’s Kick This Bad Forecasting Habit
By Spyros Makridakis, Robin M Hogarth & Anil Gaba Published May 6, 2009 10:01 p.m.

"Many reputable institutions issue regular economic forecasts that are widely cited in the international press. And yet, how accurate are these forecasts? Should we really trust them?

[…]

In this manifesto, we note the dismal historical track record of much if not most economic forecasting. Despite this reality, however, people still have an insatiable need to issue and consume forecasts. We therefore make three proposals that can make forecasts both more relevant and useful.”

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About Spyros Makridakis, Robin M Hogarth & Anil Gaba | Spyros Makridakis is founding chief editor of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting and Professor Emeritus at INSEAD. Robin M Hogarth (formerly of the University of Chicago)is now ICREA Research Professor at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona and President of the European Association for Decision Making. Anil Gaba directs the Centre on Decision Making and Risk Analysis at INSEAD where he is the ORPAR Chaired Professor of Risk Management. Together they are the coauthors of the new book Dance With Chance: Making Luck Work For You (Oneworld Publications).


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